且末绿洲规模扩张预警指标体系框架构建

在干旱区山地一荒漠一绿洲三大系统中，绿洲处于中心地位。但是随着人口的增加、社会经济的发展，绿洲生态系统所承载的压力日益增加，生态危机及可持续发展问题十分突出。确定绿洲发展的适度规模和扩张指标体系及规模预警是现代绿洲研究的核心。通过全面剖析且末绿洲系统、深入分析野外调查数据并与空间数据相结合、广泛查阅资料并分析，对绿洲规模扩张预警指标体系进行分类归并，构建了层次分明、逻辑清晰的绿洲规模扩张的预警指标框架体系，构思出3大类28项绿洲规模扩张预警指标体系，其对保持绿洲社会经济的持续、健康发展具有十分重要的战略意义。图4，参20。

Thresholds and Pre-Warning Indicators of Qerchen Oasis expansion

Oasis has the significant importance among the three basic systems of mountain-desert-oasis in the arid regions. With the rapid growth of population and development of socio-economy, the oasis ecosystem has been faced with great pressure, issues of ecological crisis and sustainable development are increasingly prominent. Determining the appropriate scale of oasis development in a certain environment and the construction of its thresholds and pre-warning indicators have been the core issue of the modern oasis study. In this paper we constructed a well structured and clear logical thresholds and pre-warning indicators of oasis system by the comprehensive analysis of Qerchen Oasis and other relevant studies as well as the combination of site invesugation&spaual data analysis. In this study we devided the constructed thresholds and pre-warning indicators of oasis system into 3 major-categories and 28 sub-categories. It has strategic significance for the study of sustainable and healthy development of oasis socio-economy.