基于多项Logit模型的山区高速公路事故致因分析

为分析山区高速长大下坡路段事故严重程度的影响因素，本文首先对地处陕西省、广西省、云南省的典型山区高速公路长大下坡路段的道路交通事故数据进行深度调研，共获取2559条事故数据，然后基于上述事故数据，构建了多项logit事故严重程度模型，对导致山区高速长大下坡路段交通事故的直接致因进行了分析。分析结果表明：肇事驾驶人超速行驶、违法装载超限、疲劳驾驶、操作不当、违法停车、车辆制动失效对山区高速长大下坡路段伤亡事故有显著影响。为改善山区公路的运营安全性，从根本上寻求已建成山区高速公路事故频发的有效办法提供方向。

nalysis of direct causes of highway accidents in mountainous areas based on multinomial logit model

In order to examine the significant factors of severity in the long and steep downgrade of mountain expressway, choosing the typical mountain expressway in Shaanxi, Guangxi and Yunnan provinces as the object of an extended investigation and obtaining a total of 2559 accident data. Then, based on the above accident data, a multiple logit regression model is adopted to construct the severity model of traffic accidents, and the direct factors of traffic accidents are examined. The result indicates that overspeed, illegal overload, fatigue driving, improper operation, illegal parking and brake failure have a significant impact on the injury and casualty accident in the long and steep downgrade of mountain expressway.