场地地震液化势的模糊概率分析

鉴于场地地震液化势实属非确定性现象，文中对这类非确定性现象进行了适当的阐述。既考虑场地地震液化的随机性又计及其危害程度分级的模糊性，将其作为随机模糊事件求其模糊概率，推导出计算场地液化模糊概率的方法和相应的公式。最后以文中建议的方法对我国３０个场地地震液化的实例进行了模糊概率分析。其结果除与实际情况的总趋势一致外，还给出了可能产生各级危害程度的定量评估，便于工程抗震作出合理的决策。

Analysis of fuzzy probability for seismic liquefaction damage at site

The assessment of the damage caused by seismic liquefaction is really an uncertain problem, which not only has a random property, but also a fuzzy character. In this paper these two characters have been taken into consideration to evaluate seismic liquefaction damage at the site. The seismic liquefaction damage is treated as a fuzzy random matter to evaluate its fuzzy probability in order to get the more practical uncertain results. Finally, There are thirty liquefaction cases of Haicheng earthquake (1975) and Tangshan earthquake (1976) which have been analysed with suggested fuzzy probability. It may be seen that the results of analysis not only closely agree with facts, but also represent the numerical assessment of the degree of liquefaction damage.