| 时间序列分析在流行病疫情研究中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 于桂荣,张建华.时间序列分析在流行病疫情研究中的应用[J].辽宁大学学报(自然科学版),2005,32(2):138-141. |
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| 作者姓名： | 于桂荣 张建华 |
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| 作者单位： | 沈阳航空工业学院,理学系,辽宁,沈阳,110034;辽宁大学,工商管理学院,辽宁,沈阳,110036 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用时序分析方法研究了从2003年4月27日开始卫生部办公厅发布的传染性非典型肺炎疫情报告，建立了非典型肺炎疫情ARMAV预报模型，并用所建模型对未来疫情进行外延预测，得到较为理想的预测结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 非典型肺炎 ARMAV模型 白噪声序列 残差方差准则 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-5846(2005)02-0138-04 |
The Application of Time Series Anlaysis in Researching of Epidemic Disease |
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| Yu Gui-rong,ZHANG Jian-hua.The Application of Time Series Anlaysis in Researching of Epidemic Disease[J].Journal of Liaoning University(Natural Sciences Edition),2005,32(2):138-141. |
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| Authors: | Yu Gui-rong ZHANG Jian-hua |
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| Institution: | YU Gui-rong~1,ZHANG Jian-hua~2 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, The models(ARMAV) of Beijing SARS were built with the time series analysis method. The data of the paper are from the SARS reporting of Ministry of Health P. R. China since April 27 2003. The epidemic diseases were predicted with the models and the prediction results are satisfactory. |
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| Keywords: | SARS ARMAV models white noise series residual variance criterion |
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