基于Petri网和模糊模拟的协同维修进度预测

为了解决协同维修过程中维修作业时间不确定、工序衔接时机不容易把握的难点,避免传统的模糊Petri网理论和方法在进度分析时依托模糊合成规则带来的问题,提出将模糊模拟技术引入到Petri网理论中的建模思想,形成协同维修进度预测的模型。首先,在确定维修任务分解结构、工序接口关系和维修工序作业模糊时间的基础上,利用着色Petri网描述协同维修过程;然后,设置相关颜色集、函数和代码实现模糊模拟技术嵌入Petri网模型的条件;最后,通过多次仿真,记录相应的维修时间和隶属度,完成可信性分析步骤。研究结果表明:所建立的协同维修进度预测模型能将模糊工期型有效转化为与隶属度相关的肯定工期型,克服了传统模糊工期分析中存在模糊合成规则复杂多变等问题;预测结果不仅可以提示维修工序的衔接时间规律,而且能确定在约束条件下按时完工的可信性。

Forecast collaborative maintenance schedule based on fusion of Petri net and fuzzy simulation

In order to overcome the complexity and difference of fuzzy mathematical rules using traditional fuzzy Petri net,a new model which inserts fuzzy simulation into Petri net theory was put forward to forecast collaborative maintenance schedule aiming to deal with the uncertain time of maintaining activities and the joint relationship of maintenance tasks during collaborative maintenance process.Firstly,on the basis of some information from maintaining work breakdown structures and the links of maintaining task...