移动通信网络风险评价指标体系的分析与模型建立

针对人群密集度高、人员流动度大的大型赛事对移动通信网络的要求,分别从网络风险、业务风险、配套风险与安全风险、质量风险等几个方面分析研究了移动通信网络风险因素,构建了通信网络风险综合评价指标体系;提出了基于层次分析法并综合了熵权法、模糊数学算法的风险评价模型;模型中同时加入了主观权重和客观权重,并采用了新的结合方法包括对中间层指标比重关系的考虑计算出综合权重,减小了因权重分配不均产生的误差;最后通过实例验证风险评价模型输出的结果与实际情况较为接近,表明模型能较好地完成对移动通信网络风险状况的预测和评价。

Analysis and Model Establishment for Mobile Communication Network Risk Evaluation Index System

According to the requirement for large scale competitions with high crowd density and high personal mobility, the risk factors of mobile communication network are analyzed and studied from the perspective of network risk, business risk, supporting risk, safety risk, quality risk and so on, comprehensive evaluation index system for communication network risk is constructed, and the risk assessment model based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), entropy weight method and fuzzy mathematical algorithm is proposed. Both subjective weight and objective weight are added into the model, and a new combination method is adopted, including the calculation of the comprehensive weight by considering the proportion relation of the index in the middle layer so as to reduce the error caused by the uneven weight distribution. Finally, an example is given to verify that the output of the model is close to the actual situation, indicating that the model can better predict and evaluate the risk status of the mobile communication network.