动态经济、人口迁移模型

本文建立以投入产出表为基本框架的多目标优化经济模型和三维人口模型,两者通过劳动力的供求关系相耦合,前者给出适应产业部门均衡发展技术进步条件下的劳动力需求,后者给出取决于人口自然增长的劳力供给,由供求之差决定迁移人口的规模和结构。仿真结果给出经济发展动态轨线和相应的产业结构及就业结构。为互相对照,文中给出了两种模型解法。

A Dynamic Model for Economics and Migration

A population-economics simulation system based on an input-output framework is presented. It is composed of a multi-objective optimum economic model and a multidimensional population model. The economic model uses the national income, which reflects the national economic development level, the economic efficiency and the distribution relations as the main objective and the proportional development among departments as the second objective while many other constraints concerning economic development correlationships have been added. The economic model reflects the resource re-allocation owing to domestic demand growth and the change of production structure due to the growth of the departments at different speeds and in different scales. The population model reflects the influence of resource allocation on the population system, i. e., the population migration as a result of the change of employment structure. The economic model and population model constitute a closed calculation structure through coordination, optimization and decision modules to show the track of the dynamic development of a population-economic system.