城市生态足迹与承载力的测度与分析

为了定量测量未来时期人类生产生活等消费活动是否超过了生态系统的承载能力,应用生态足迹模型对区域可持续发展能力进行了计算。采用地方生产力指标体系,在计算2004年大连金港区的生态足迹的基础上,对金港区2010年的生态足迹进行了预测分析。计算结果表明:2004年大连市金港区的生态赤字为1．5201 hm2／人;规划至2010年,金港区的生态赤字为:1．7023 hm2／人。预测结果表明随着金港区的进一步规划发展,生态足迹和生态承载力均有一定程度的增加,由于可利用土地面积的有限性和随着人们生活水平的提高人均消费量的增加,生态承载力的增加幅度小于生态足迹的增加幅度,导致生态赤字的增大。计算结果将为优化金港区的城市生态结构、完善其生态系统功能提供依据。

Estimation and analysis on urban ecological footprint and ecological capacity

In order to quantitatively measure that whether men's consumptions are beyond the ecological capacity or not, the ecological footprint (EF) computer model can be used to calculate sustainable development capacity. Taking Jingang Zone as an example, by adapting local productivity data, the EF in 2004 and in 2010 is calculated. The ecological deficit of Jingang Zone is estimated at 1.5201hm2 per person and 1.7023 hm2 in 2010. As Jingang Zone develops, the EF and EC (ecological capacity) will increase to some degree. The EF increases more rapidly than EC, because the area of Jingang Zone is limited and the consumption is increasing. As a result, the ecological deficit is increasing. All the results will redound to optimize the urban ecological framework and improve the function of urban ecological system.