基于实物期权的房地产开发价值评估研究

未来不确定的条件下,传统NPV分析方法在价值评估中使用受到限制。通过积极、动态、实时的管理创造项目价值,运用项目管理者的柔性决策空间、实物期权思想及其二项式期权定价模型,确定投资项目中的实物期权价值,可以在一定程度上弥补传统方法的缺陷。基于实物期权分析框架,考虑实物期权价值,寻找项目现值投资决策的临界值;并运用实物期权分析方法,充分挖掘项目中不确定条件下所蕴涵的灵活性价值,对房地产开发项目中的价值进行正确评估。

A Study of Estimating Value of Real Estate Based on Real-option Analysis

Under uncertain environment to real estate project value assessment,NPV analysis method being restricted. By the timely administration create project value actively,wield flexibility of project director decision space,Real-option thinking and their binomial expression real-option fixed price model ascertains real-option value in project.It can make up tradition method defect to a certain extent.Consider real-option value within real-option-based analytical framework,seek project current value threshold valu...