基于复杂网络的多机场航班延误传播分析

为了研究多机场间航班延误的传播机理,将机场作为节点,航线作为边构成复杂网络。通过分析传染病传播过程与机场间航班延误传播过程的相似性,借鉴经典传染病传播模型(SIR)的思想,并考虑不同机场间延误传播的差异,提出机场重要度的概念,构建了多机场航班延误传播模型。对多机场航班延误传播过程的仿真结果表明:在多机场网络中,初始延误机场不同以及机场重要度不同,延误传播效果不同,但延误传播规律保持不变。对网络中重要机场进行相应管控会使发生延误的机场数量峰值下降,且按照介数值确定需进行管控的重要机场,网络中发生延误机场数量峰值下降率最大。可见,该模型可以客观反映多机场间航班延误传播的动态过程和变化规律,并可为延误的预防和恢复提供理论依据。

Complex network-based analysis of multi-airport flight delay propagation

In order to study the transmission mechanism of flight delays among multiple airports, airports are taken as nodes and routes as edges to form a complex network. By analysing the similarity between the transmission process of infectious diseases and the transmission process of flight delays between airports, drawing on the idea of the classical infectious disease transmission model (SIR), and considering the differences in the transmission of delays between different airports, the concept of airport importance is proposed, and the multi-airport flight delay transmission model is constructed. The simulation results of the multi-airport flight delay propagation process show that in the multi-airport network, the delay propagation effect is different for different initial delay airports and different airport importance, but the delay propagation law remains unchanged. The control of important airports in the network will reduce the peak number of delayed airports, and the peak number of delayed airports in the network will decrease the most when the important airports to be controlled are determined according to the median value. It can be seen that the model can objectively reflect the dynamic process and changing law of flight delay propagation among multiple airports, and can provide theoretical basis for delay prevention and recovery.