逐步回归法的地下水开采中的应用

对一个开采时间较长且多个水源地来说，目前多数用有限元法求解不同时期的抽水量与水位之间的关系，即用拟合方法来求得各种参数，如渗透系数、给水度、储水系数、边界条件等，然后去预测水量或水位，在此过程中，如果对边界条件和入渗补给最难以确定的地区，人为去调节参数，很难准确计算出预测，而运用逐步回归的方法求解水位与水量的关系，建立逐步回归方程，来预测这种关系，不仅简便且实用，本文以大庆西部水源地开采为例，说明该方法的实用性。

Application of Gradual Regression Method in Exploiting Ground Water

To the exploiting water fields which have been exploited for a long time,relationship between exploited water head and exploited water quantities is calculated by finite element method,that is to get all kinds of parameters by fitting method,then to forecast relation between aquiferous head and exploited water quantities.During the process,it is difficult to estimate and forecatst the relations precisely by artifitially adjusting the parameters in the areas where the boundary condition and infiltrate recharge are difficulty to determine,whereas gradual regressi on method is a better way for solving problem of hydraulic head and exploited water quantites.An example of west exploited water field in Daqing is given in this paper.