集市模型:少数者与多数者博弈演化分析

为比较主体不同行为策略对社会经济复杂系统演化的影响,基于酒吧模型提出了多数者博弈的集市模型A和少数者-多数者混合博弈的集市模型B。采用多主体建模方法,引入了主体的预期规则、策略选择、学习与适应等微观机制,模型模拟结果展现了人类社会系统所独有的预期的自我实现和/或自我毁灭现象。文章着重讨论了主体预期、行为策略对稳态参与人数均值的影响,发现主体的行为策略是决定系统演化结果的关键因素。

Fair Model: an Evolutionary Analysis of the Minority and Majority Game

In order to study the influence of agents’ different action strategies on the evolution of social economic system,this paper puts forward a fair model A and a fair model B inspired by the El Farol Model.Agents prefer to stay in the majority side in fair model A and they play mix-game in fair model B.We build agent-based models and introduce the microscopic mechanisms of expectation rules,strategy choice,learning process and adaptive behavior.The results show the emergent phenomena-’self-fulfillment of expectation’ and ’self-destroying of expectation’,which are unique to the human society.We emphatically discuss the impacts of expectation rules and action strategies on the long-time behavior of the three models as indicated by the convergence of the mean attendance in different parameters setting.We find that action strategy is a crucial factor in determining the system stable state.