| 大型工程前期的进度风险总控 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾广社,牟强. 大型工程前期的进度风险总控[J]. 同济大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 46(1): 0125-0132 |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾广社 牟强 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学 经济与管理学院，上海 200092,同济大学 经济与管理学院，上海 200092 |
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| 基金项目： | 基金名(课题编号)(有基金资助课题析出的论文应列出,基金名不是课题名称) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对大型工程前期工作不确定性高的问题,通过国内数个大型机场工程前期工作的进度总控实践成果,提出将进度总控与风险管理相结合的前期进度风险总控模型.然后,以XY新机场为例,应用该模型制定前期进度计划和风险清单.最后,通过XY机场与其他机场前期进度的总体风险对比,以及该进度风险计划实施前后的效果对比,证实了前期进度风险总控方法的有效性.通过引入风险管理的前期进度总控模型,提高了进度总控在项目前期的适用性,为加快推进大型工程的前期工作进度提供了方法指导和借鉴.
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| 关 键 词： | 大型工程 前期阶段 进度总控 风险管理 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-04-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017-11-06 |
Time-risk Controlling in Early Stage of Mega Construction Project |
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| JIA Guangshe and MOU Qiang. Time-risk Controlling in Early Stage of Mega Construction Project[J]. Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science), 2018, 46(1): 0125-0132 |
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| Authors: | JIA Guangshe and MOU Qiang |
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| Affiliation: | School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China and School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on project-time controlling and risk management theory, a time-risk controlling model has been proposed to solve the problem of high uncertainty in the early stage of mega construction project (MCP) from the consulting achievements for several airport megaprojects. Next, the model was applied to develop pre-stage schedules and risk lists for XY airport megaproject. Finally, the effectiveness of controlling method was proved by comparing the overall time-risks of XY airport and other two airport pre-schedules, and comparing the effect before and after implementation of the customized plan. The risk-based method improves the applicability of project time-controlling at the front-end, and provides a methodological guidance for early time control of MCPs. |
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