基于灰色区间关联决策的目标威胁评估

如何对空袭目标的威胁程度进行科学的评估与排序,是防空指挥中的重要环节,也是防空指挥员面临的难题之一。威胁评估一般仅考虑最大值所提供的信息,存在结果失真的情况,因而采用区间数来表示更有实际意义。针对空袭目标的威胁判断问题,分析了空袭目标威胁评判的准则,据此给出了影响目标威胁的主要因素,并给出了主要因素的隶属函数。将区间数和灰色理论结合,构建了灰色区间关联决策模型并应用于空袭目标威胁排序中,较准确地反映目标机动对威胁度的影响,且将系统中非主要因素考虑在内,使得威胁评估更加接近实战。最后,将模型运用于空袭目标威胁排序中,以实例证实了此方法的可行性。

Threat Evaluation Technology Based on Grey Interval-number for Grey Decision-making

Aimed at the air-raid target threat,the index system of the threat evaluation,quantified and indexed by the fuzzy membership function,is given based on the guideline of the threat evaluation.Usually in threat evaluation,only the information provided by the maximum is taken into account and the general values are ignored,which will bring distortion into existence.So,in this situation,it is more meaningful and significant to adopt interval-number in expression.In view of the judgment problem of the air-raid target threat,the criterion for the judgment of the air-raid target threat is analyzed and the main factors effecting on the target threat are given based on this.Then,by combining the interval number with the Grey relationship grade theory,a new multi-objective decision-making model is constructed and applied to the threat sequence of the air-raid target,which can more accurately reflect the influence of target maneuver on threat degree.In this way,the non-chief factors in the system are also taken into account,which makes the threat evaluation closer to the actual combat.Finally the model is applied to the air-raid target threat sequence,and the example shows that this method is feasible.