基于Mann-Kendall的济南市气温变化趋势及突变分析

基于Mann - Kendall检验方法,通过对1951 -2007年济南市气温数据的分析,发现济南市年均气温存在十分明显的上升趋势,线性增温速率为0.24℃/10 a,其中50、80年代年均气温增温迅速,60、70年代呈相对稳定的波状起伏,1983年之后升温趋势十分显著,2000年之后升温趋稳并呈微小下降态势.研究时段内年均气温存在两次突变,分别发生在1975年和1984年.对于四季气温,春季和冬季增温趋势十分显著,两季的升温速率分别为0.31℃/10 a和0.43C/10 a；秋季气温增温显著,夏季气温随时间变化而增暖的趋势不明显,两季的升温增速分别为0.156℃/10 a和0.055 °C/10 a.四季气温随时间变化特征表现为:春季和秋季整体呈现缓慢波状上升,而夏季和冬季则起伏较大.分析表明,1969年的夏季和1986年冬季是季温发生突变的节点.

Analysis of Air-Temperature Variation Trend and Abrupt Change in Jinan Based on Mann-Kendall Test

Mainly based on the method of Mann-Kendall test,both annual and seasonal air temperature in Jinan are analyzed by using observational data from 1951 to 2007.The results show that the mean annual air temperature increases very significantly with a speed of 0.24℃/10a,among which the average annual air temperature in 50′s and 80′s increases rapidly,is relatively stable in 60′s and 70′s,rises again obviously after 1983,and becomes stabilized and even shows a slight downward trend after 2000.Two abrupt changes in annual air temperature occur in 1975 and 1984,respectively,during the studied period.For seasonal temperature,the warming trend in spring,winter and autumn is very significant,reaching 0.31℃/10a,0.43℃/10a,and 0.156℃/10a,respectively,but not obvious in summer,only with a speed of 0.055℃/10a.As a whole,air temperature presents a slow rise in spring and autumn,by contrast,the change of air temperature in summer and winter shows larger fluctuation,and summer in 1969 and winter in 1986 are the season in which abrupt changes took place.