| 基于前景理论的订货问题 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘咏梅,彭民,李立.基于前景理论的订货问题[J].系统管理学报,2010,19(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘咏梅 彭民 李立 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学商学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家创新研究群体科学基金资助项目，国家自然科学基金重点资助项目，国家自然科学基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对需求不确定条件下的订货问题,传统订货模型都是基于期望效用理论,该理论假设决策者是完全理性的,这不符合决策者的现实决策行为,而前景理论正是描述不确定条件下个体实际决策行为的理论。应用前景理论,针对需求不确定条件下零售商的订货行为,建立了新订货模型,并与传统订货模型做了实证比较分析。结果表明,在我国早餐订货过程中,零售商并不是完全理性的,其倾向于风险规避,会适度减少订货量,基于前景理论的订货模型能够更好的描述零售商的订货行为。
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| 关 键 词： | 前景理论 报童模型 生产计划 不确定需求 订货问题 供应链管理 |
A Study of Order Problem Based on Prospect Theory |
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| LIU Yong-mei,PENG Min,LI Li.A Study of Order Problem Based on Prospect Theory[J].Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications,2010,19(5). |
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| Authors: | LIU Yong-mei PENG Min LI Li |
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| Institution: | LIU Yong-mei,PENG Min,LI Li(School of Business,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China) |
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| Abstract: | The traditional order model based on the Expected Utility Theory usually assumes that decision-makers are perfect rational,while they are bounded rational in reality.Since the Prospect Theory is often used to interpret individual decision,this paper proposes an order model based on the Prospect Theory to research the order problem under demand uncertainty,and makes an empirical analysis.The empirical analysis results of the breakfast ordering problem in China show that retailers are not entirely rational an... |
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| Keywords: | theory newsboy model production planning demand uncertainty order problem supply chain management |
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