竞争失效下多元退化建模的航空发动机可靠性分析

为了解决航空发动机的竞争失效下多元退化系统可靠性评估问题，提出一种多元退化失效和突发失效之间相关竞争失效的可靠性评估方法.以具有随机效应的非线性Wiener过程与Gamma过程描述退化失效过程，选择合适的Copula函数对多元退化失效相关性进行建模，通过马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法进行多元退化系统相关失效模型参数估计；引入Weibull分布描述突发失效时间，采用比例危险模型构建关于性能退化量的突发失效率函数，利用两步极大似然估计法识别模型参数.结合航空发动机的性能退化数据实现了竞争失效下多元退化系统可靠性评估，通过分析结果验证了模型的有效性与准确性.

Reliability Analysis of Aero-engines Based on Multivariate Degradation Modeling Under Competitive Failure

In order to solve the problem of aero-engines’ reliability evaluation of multi-degraded systems under competitive failure， a reliability evaluation method of related competitive failure between multi-degraded failure and sudden failure is proposed. The non-linear Wiener process and Gamma process with random effects are used to describe the degenerate failure process of the system， the appropriate Copula function is chosen to model the failure correlation of the multivariate degenerate system， and parameter of multivariate degradation-related failure model is estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The Weibull distribution is introduced to describe the sudden failure time， the proportional hazard model is used to construct the sudden failure rate function about the performance degradation， and the two-step maximum likelihood estimation method is used to identify the model parameters. Combined with the performance degradation data of aero-engines， the reliability evaluation of the multivariate degradation system under competitive failure is realized， and the validity and accuracy of the model are verified through the analysis results.