高温熔融金属作业安全完整性评价

为了保证冶金行业高温熔融金属作业的安全性，将IEC 61508 标准提出的安全相关系统安全完整性的概念拓展到高温熔融金属作业系统，提出了基于贝叶斯网络Noisy-or模型的高温熔融金属作业安全完整性评价方法.建立了包括人的因素、物的因素、环境因素和管理因素的高温熔融金属作业安全完整性评价模型.贝叶斯网络各根节点的先验概率采用模糊理论的模糊数来确定.为了减少计算量及不确定性，利用Noisy-or模型确定条件概率，并考虑了各中间节点对作业安全完整性的协同影响作用.结果表明，评价模型因果推理可确定高温熔融金属作业的安全完整性等级，诊断推理也可确定其敏感因素，为制定安全措施提供指导意见.

Safety Integrity Evaluation of High Temperature Molten Metal Operation

In order to ensure the safety of high temperature molten metal operation in metallurgy industry， the concept of safety integrity of safety-related systems in IEC 61508 was extended to high temperature molten metal operation system， and a safety integrity evaluation method for high temperature molten metal operation based on Bayesian networks Noisy-or model was proposed. A safety integrity evaluation model for high temperature molten metal operations was established， which includes human factors， material factors， environmental factors and management factors. The prior probability of each root node of the Bayesian network was determined by the fuzzy number of fuzzy theory. In order to reduce the amount of calculation and uncertainty， the Noisy-or model was used to determine the conditional probability， and the synergistic effect of each intermediate node on the safety and integrity of the operation was considered. The results show that the evaluation model causal reasoning can determine the safety integrity level of high temperature molten metal operations， and diagnostic reasoning can also determine its sensitive factors， providing guidance for the formulation of safety measures.