| 基于实物期权的PPP项目投资评价研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘继才,宋金龙. 基于实物期权的PPP项目投资评价研究[J]. 世界科技研究与发展, 2012, 34(3): 514-518 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘继才 宋金龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学经济管理学院,成都,610031 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 传统的现金流折现法忽视了不确定性因素的影响,不能对基础设施PPP项目进行有效评价.针对传统的折现法的这一缺陷,分析了PPP项目中存在的期权特征,并提出基于实物期权理论的二叉树期权评价模型.通过实际的案例分析,考虑交通PPP项目中车流量的不确定性,得出实物期权理论相对于现金流折现法的优势.最后提出实物期权在PPP项目评价中的应用前景与建议.
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| 关 键 词： | PPP项目 实物期权 折现现金流方法 投资评价 |
Researches on PPP Project's Investment Evaluation Based on Real Option Theory |
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| LIU Jicai , SONG Jinlong. Researches on PPP Project's Investment Evaluation Based on Real Option Theory[J]. World Sci-tech R & D, 2012, 34(3): 514-518 |
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| Authors: | LIU Jicai SONG Jinlong |
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| Affiliation: | ( School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031 ) |
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| Abstract: | Due to ignorance of uncertainties in PPP projects, traditional discounted-cash-flow method （DCF） can not be used to evaluate PPP projects efficiently. Based on the analysis of these drawbacks of DCF, the options in PPP projects are analyzed. And a binomial tree model is put forward to evaluate the options according to real option theory. With real case studies, it＇s obvious about real option＇s advantages over DCF method considering traffic uncertainty. Finally,the prospect of real option＇s application and recommendation is raised in PPP projects. |
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| Keywords: | PPP projects real option discounted-cash-flow investment evaluation |
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