小流域洪水预报新安江模型参数优选方法及应用研究

针对小流域洪水降雨强度大、历时短、汇流速度快的特点,提出了一种应用新安江模型进行小流域洪水预报及模型参数优化率定的方法.该方法以最小二乘法作为模型参数优选的准则,并采用逐次渐进网格寻优法优选模型参数.由于该方法同时优选所有模型参数,不需要对实测径流进行分割,从而可避免人工分割径流而出现的参数率定误差.最后,按照该方法,应用二水源、三水源新安江模型对广东省黄京塘流域进行了研究计算,优选出了模型参数.模型验证结果表明,二水源新安江模型效果比三水源新安江模型好.

Optimal Parameter Calibration Method and Its Application of Xin''''anjiang Model for Small Basin Flood Forecasting

According to the characteristics with small basin flood with high precipitation rate, short time elapse and rapid routing speed, a method for small basin flood forecasting by using Xin'anjiang Model, and the way for calibrating model parameters optimally was presented.This method minimizes the squared flood simulation difference and employs the successive grid search technique to find the optimal model parameter values. As this method calibrates all the model parameters in one procedure, and there is no need to separate the runoff, it can reduce the error caused by model parameter calibration due to intentionally separate runoff. The Huangjingtang basin in southern China is used as the case study, and the model parameters are derived by using the method presented in this paper. The model validation results show that the flood simulated results of two component Xin'anjiang Model is better than that of three component Xin'anjiang Model.