基于前景理论的动态路径选择模型研究

在实际出行过程中受多种不确定因素的影响，导致出行者的路径选择行为往往是动态的。本文考虑出行者在路径选择过程中的有限理性以及路径改变方式，在前景理论的基础上建立了动态路径选择模型，提出了更适合人们思维习惯的动态路径选择方法。该方法允许出行者根据道路情况随时调整路径，并用实例验证了方法的正确性和适用性。结果表明，当出行者遇到拥堵路段时，可以在途中改变路径，并且在心理预期时间不能满足时，就会选择有风险的路径。

Prospect theory based dynamic route choice model

Travelers often dynamically select their routes since their route choice behaviors are influenced by many uncertain factors in practical travel process. We establish a prospect theory based dynamic route choice model from bounded rationality and change on the way in route choice. We further present a dynamic route choice model more applicable to people thinking habit. It allows a traveler to dynamically adjust the route based on road situation. We also verify its correctness and applicability through practical instances. Results show that a traveler can change route on the way when he meets a congested road section. He will choose a risky route if his psychological expected time cannot be satisfied.