淄博市粮食生产与耕地变化分析与预测

随着城市化进程的加快，淄博市耕地与粮食生产正面临严重威胁，分析与预测淄博市耕地变化与粮食生产状况，对实现社会可持续发展意义重大．采用最小人均耕地面积、耕地压力指数模型、回归分析方法和平滑预测法及Excel软件，在分析1990—2008年淄博市耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上，对未来5年耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测．结果表明：1990年以来，虽然淄博市人均耕地面积持续减少，但由于耕地生产率不断提高，粮食总产量和人均粮食产量总体上呈增加趋势；未来5年，最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数将进一步降低．可见，依靠增加投入和科技进步从而不断提高耕地生产率，是减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全生产的根本途径．

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF FOOD PRODUCTION AND CROPLAND CHANGE IN ZIBO CITY

With the rapid development of urbanization, Zibo＇ s cultivated cropland change and food production is under great threatening. It is meaningful to the city＇ s social sustainable development to analyze and predict the cultivated land gross dynamic equilibrium and food production condition. By using minimum cropland acreage per capita , cropland pressure index model, regression analysis, prognostic theory and Excel software, based on the analysis on the consideration of changes in cropland, population and grain output of Zibo between 1990 and 2008, the cropland, population, grain output, minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index were forecasted for the following 5 years. The result showed that although the cropland acreage per capita of-Zibo kept on decreasing since 1990, the total grain yield and per capita grain yield presented an increment trend totally because of continuous raise the cropland rate of production. The minimum cropland acreage per capita and the cropland pressure index would be more lower in future 5 years. So depending on increasing devotion and making progress of science and technology to raise cropland rate of production continuously are the basic path of easing cropland pressure and promising the food safe production.