全球恐怖袭击事件量化分级及反恐态势预测——基于投影寻踪和灰色新陈代谢模型

 恐怖袭击严重威胁地区的和平稳定,且正加速向全球各地蔓延。根据全球恐怖主义数据库（GTD）中1998-2017年恐怖袭击事件数据,基于投影寻踪评价模型（PPM）和灰色新陈代谢模型（GMM）对恐怖袭击事件的危害程度进行了量化分级,并预测了未来5年全球恐怖活动的蔓延趋势。研究显示,恐怖袭击事件危害程度量化后共分为5级,美国纽约“9·11”事件危害程度排名第一;恐怖活动已从重点地区逐渐向全球各地蔓延,但未来5年全球恐怖袭击总量呈现下降态势;中东、非洲等地区在未来5年仍是国际恐怖活动的高发区,非洲将沦为恐怖活动的“重灾区”,而东南亚、南亚等地区将成为恐怖主义新活跃区。

Quantitative classification of global terrorist attacks and prediction of anti-terrorist situation:Based on projection pursuit model and grey metabolic model

The terrorist attacks pose a serious threat to the regional peace and stability and their spread to all parts of the world is accelerating. Based on the data of terrorist attacks from 1998 through 2017 in the Global Terrorist Database (GTD), this paper quantitatively classifies the damage degrees of terrorist attacks based on the Projection Pursuit Model (PPM) and the Grey Metabolic Model (GMM), and predicts the spread trend of the global terrorist activities in the next five years. Based on the quantified damage degrees of terrorist attacks, the terrorist attacks can be divided into five levels, with the first level as the "9·11" incident in New York, USA. Terrorist activities have gradually spread from key areas to all parts of the world, but the total amount of the global terrorist attacks is in a downward trend in the next five years. The Middle East, Africa and other regions will still be the areas of a high incidence of international terrorist activities in the next five years. Africa will become a "disaster area" of terrorism, while Southeast Asia and South Asia will become new active areas of terrorism.