Option prioritization for unknown preference |
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Authors: | Jing Yu Keith W Hipel D Marc Kilgour Min Zhao |
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Institution: | 1.Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing, Jiangsu,China;2.Department of Systems Design Engineering,University of Waterloo,Waterloo,Canada;3.Department of Mathematics,Wilfrid Laurier University,Waterloo,Canada;4.Centre for International Governance Innovation,Waterloo,Canada;5.Water Resources and Sustainable Development Research Centre of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing,China |
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Abstract: | An option prioritization technique is developed to efficiently elicit the preferences, both unknown and crisp, of decision makers (DMs) in strategic conflicts. In the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, each DM has one or more options, each of which may be selected or not. A state, or possible scenario, is formed when all DMs make an option selection. The software GMCR II contains an option prioritization procedure that makes it easy for a modeller to enter a DM’s crisp preference ordering over the states using prioritized statements describing the DM’s preferred option combinations. This procedure is extended by adding two new logical connectives that describe uncertainty of preference. For each DM, a range of possible scores for each feasible state can then be calculated, facilitating the determination of a preference ordering containing uncertainty by comparing and ranking scores. To demonstrate how this new methodology can be used to represent unknown preferences in a real-world decision problem, it is applied to a Canadian dispute over proposed water exports. |
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