大城市地面沉降灾害的灰色预测

地面沉降同地震、砂土液化、滑坡、泥石流等一样是一种十分严重的自然灾害,本文是利用灰色理论对这一灾害现象进行研究的。文中首先介绍了灰色理论中的GM(1,1)模型的建模法,然后利用日本东京昭和5—35年的地面沉降资料和墨西哥城1890～1945年地面沉降资料分别建立了东京城和墨西哥城地面沉降的灰色预测模型:x(k+1)=13.60672006e~(0.12126861k)—12.64172006和x(k十1)=1.1383e~(0.233553k)—1.1383。利用这两种模型分别对东京城昭和40、45年和墨西哥城1950、1955年地面沉降量进行了预测,结果与实际沉降值拟合得较理想。

Forecasting of Earth Subsidence Hazards in the Big Cities on the Basis of Grey Theory

The method of estabnlishing the model of GM (1, 1) is introduced on the basis of grey theory. The grey forecasting models of earth subsidence of Tokyo and Mexico are established as follows: X(1) (K+l) = 13. 60672006e0.1212686K-12. 64172006 and X(1) (K+l) =1.1383e0.233553K-1. 1383. They are obtained from the data of earth subsidence of Tokyo and Mexico from 1929 to 1934 and from 1890 to 1945 respectively. The values of earth subsidence of these two cities in 1939 and 1944 and in 1950 and 1955 were forecasted with the help of these two models.