基于概率积分法的地面沉陷灾害预测

为了解决采矿引起的地表沉降与塌陷的破坏程度以及对地表用地的影响问题,结合采煤引起的开采沉陷研究理论,应用概率积分法,建立基本数学模型,选取合理的计算参数,模拟出了2006—2014年地面沉降变形曲线。结果表明:由于概率积分法是通过随机介质理论,从统计观点出发,把整个开采区域分解为无限个微小单元的开采,因此概率积分法能够准确的计算出地下采矿与地面沉降之间的相互关系,对于未来进行灾害预测具有重要的意义。实践表明这种算法具有很好的使用价值。

diseaster predictiom of surface subsidence based on probability integration

In order to solve the problem of surface subsidence and landslide caused by mining as well as the influence of surface subsidence.This article use the coal mining subsidence theory, establish the basic mathematical model by probability integration method,selects the reasonable computation parameter,simulated 2006-2014 the surface subsidence distortion curve.The result indicated that:because the probability integration method use the stochastic medium theory and the statistical viewpoint to divid the entiremining region into infinite small unit mining.So the probability integration method can accurately establish the relation between underground coal mining and surface subsidence.It have the vital significance for forecasting the future surface subsidence caused by mine.The practice proved that the probability integration method would have great practical value.