| 水利水电未完建项目投资偏差预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王卓甫,章恒全,章志强. 水利水电未完建项目投资偏差预测模型[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 1998, 26(1): 106-110 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王卓甫 章恒全 章志强 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]河海大学国际工商学院 [2]南京市长江河道管理处 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了影响水利水电工程未完建项目投资偏差的原因，并将其分为两类：一类是与合同单价构成相关的，另一类是与合同单价构成无关的。对于基础单价引起的投资偏差的预测，首先将各种主要因素进行分解，并确定其权重，然后用灰色马尔柯夫链模型预测各因子的单价；对于与合同单价构成无关的原因引起的投资偏差，则采用期望预测法进行预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 投资偏差 预测 基础单价 水利水电工程 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-11-11 |
A Model for Prediction of Investment Deviation in Water Resources Projects under Construction |
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| Wang Zhuofu Zhang Hengquan. A Model for Prediction of Investment Deviation in Water Resources Projects under Construction[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ), 1998, 26(1): 106-110 |
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| Authors: | Wang Zhuofu Zhang Hengquan |
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| Abstract: | The causes of investment deviation in water resources projects under construction is analysed,and the deviation is classified into two types:one is related to unit price in the contract,another is not.Different deviationa are predicted respectively.For the prediction of investment deviation caused by basic unit price,firstly,every main factor is divided and the weight is given,then,the GM Markov Chain method is used in the prediction of unit price.For the prediction of another kind of investment deviation,the method of Expectant Prediction is used. |
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| Keywords: | investment deviation prediction basic unit price Markov Chain |
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