京沪线客流和旅客快车开行方案的分析

客流是研究京沪高速客运专线运输组织模式的基础，在已有的研究报告中，一般都认为京沪线的跨线客流约占２／３，而本线客流占１／３左右。本文通过对京沪线实绩客流和现行旅客快车开行方案结构的深入分析，提出了＂跨线客流与本线客流各占５０％左右，而跨线旅客快车开行对数约占２／３，本线旅客快车开行对数占１／３左右＂的结论，它对研究京沪高速客运专线运输组织问题有重要参考价值。

Analysis of Passenger Volume and Passenger Express Operation Scheme in Beijing-Shanghai Railway

Passenger volume is the basis of mode study on passenger traffic organization. In previous research reports, it is considered that the passengers changing from or to Beijing-Shanghai Railway are about 2/3, while the passengers keeping in Beijing-Shanghai Railway are about 1/3 of the total volume. By thorough-going analysis of passenger flow and composition of existing operation scheme of passenger exeprsses in Beijing-hai Raiway, this paper draws a conclusion that both the passengers changing off-line and keeping in-line take each 50% of the total volume approximately, and that the number of off-line expresses is about 2/3, while those of in-line is about 1/3 of the total pairs of expresses running in BeiJing-Shanghai Railway. Thus gives an important implication for studies on the problems of BeiJing-Shanghai High-speed Railway passenger traffic organization.