| 现金流量不确定性对股利政策影响的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜秀珍,全林,陈俊芳. 现金流量不确定性对股利政策影响的实证研究[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2004, 38(3): 351-354 |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜秀珍 全林 陈俊芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海交通大学,安泰管理学院,上海,200052
2. 上海交通大学,人文社会科学学院,上海,200030 |
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| 摘 要： | 从理论和实证两个方面分析了预期现金流量的波动性在股利决策中扮演的角色．预期现金流量波动性用财务杠杆、资产规模来度量．研究表明，在股价惩罚与股利削减存在必然联系的情况下，当将来的现金流量有很少确定性时，理性的经理人会支付较低水平的股利．实证检验结果与这一结论相吻合．
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| 关 键 词： | 现金流量 不确定性 股利支付 模型 实证分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-2467(2004)03-0351-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-04-27 |
An Empirical Study of the Impact of Cash Flow Uncertainty on Dividend Policy |
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| JIANG Xiu-zhen,QUAN Lin,CHEN Jun-fang. An Empirical Study of the Impact of Cash Flow Uncertainty on Dividend Policy[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 2004, 38(3): 351-354 |
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| Authors: | JIANG Xiu-zhen QUAN Lin CHEN Jun-fang |
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| Affiliation: | JIANG Xiu-zhen~1,QUAN Lin~2,CHEN Jun-fang~1 |
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| Abstract: | The role of expected cash flow volatility as a determinant of dividend policy was explored both theoretically and empirically. The expected cash flow volatility was measured by financial leverage, asset size. The research result demonstrates that if the existence of a stock-price penalty associates with dividend cuts, managers rationally pay out a lower level of dividend when the future cash flow is less certain. The empirical result is consistent with this conclusion. |
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| Keywords: | cash flow uncertainty dividend payout model empirical analysis |
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