近58年登陆我国热带气旋的气候特征分析

 利用1949-2006年登陆我国热带气旋(TC)资料，采用统计方法对比分析了近58 a登陆我国TC的频数、强度、初（终）旋日、台风季长度等气候特征参数的总体和区域分布及其时间演变特征。分析得出各参数的主要演变特征为：(1) 1949-2006年登陆我国TC频数呈下降趋势，台风季长度缩短、平均中心气压降低、登陆点区域分布也发生了改变；(2) 登陆我国TC频数、中心气压、台风季长度等均在20世纪90年代中期（1995年前后）发生了显著突变；(3) 相比于突变发生前（1949-1994年），突变后的12 a间，① 登陆全国TC频数减少，并且沿海各省登陆TC频数大多减少或持平，只有浙江增加；② 我国台风季长度缩短，并且除广西和浙江略增长外，其它沿海各省均一致缩短；③ 除登陆台湾TC的平均中心气压略上升外，登陆其它沿海各省TC的平均中心气压均下降。

Analysis of the Climatic Features of Landfall Tropical Cyclones in China during the Past 58 Years

Based on the data of Tropical Cyclone (TC for short) making landfall in China from 1949 to 2006, the general and regional climatic characteristics of TC parameters (including TC annual frequency, intensity, first landfall and last landfall date, typhoon season duration and the average central pressure), together with their temporal development feature, are examined according to the statistical method. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) During the past 58 years, TC annual frequency has decreased, typhoon season duration has shortened, the average central pressure has shrunk,and the pattern of regional distribution has rectified. (2) A transformation of landfalling TC annual frequency, typhoon season duration and central pressure occurred in the mid 1990s (about 1995). (3) In contrast with the first (1949-1994) and the second periods (1995-2006), both the patterns of regional distribution and climatic feature of landfalling TCs have changed.The annual landfalling frequency in most of coastal provinces has decreased except for Zhejiang province since 1995. The typhoon season duration has lengthened in Guangxi and Zhejiang province, while the duration has shortened in the other provinces after 1995. The average central pressure has reduced in most of coastal provinces excluding Taiwan province since 1995.