土地资源人口承载力动力学模拟和应用

人口和土地资源的关系是一种复杂的非线性关系．本文通过建立土地资源人口承载力动力学模型，运用非线性科学理论，讨论了人口-土地资源系统的演化方向和平衡态稳定性问题．稳定的平衡态是系统发展可能达到的最终状态，在人口与土地资源自治系统中，土地资源的数量和质量、人口数量和生活消费水平之间相互联系、相互制约．研究表明：（1）稳定平衡态时人口数量与土地资源生产潜力总量成正比；（2）人口数量和土地资源生产潜力总量与人类消费水平成反比；（3）人口数量和土地资源生产力与耕地面积和土地单产潜力成正比．文章对我国的土地人口承载力进行了实证分析．结果显示，我国完全有能力养活自己．

The Dynamic Simulation and Application of Land Population Carrying Capacity

The relationship between population and land resource has nonlinear characteristics.A dynamic model of it is set up in this paper,and the evolutions and stabilities of the model are discussed according to the theory of nonlinear science.In the self-organized system of population and land resource,such factors as quality and quantity of land resource,population and consumption of the human act each other.The results of study show:(1) The population is proportional to gross potential land resource productivity in equilibrium state;(2) The population and the gross potential land resource productivity are inversely proportional to the human consumption levels;(3) The population and the gross potential land resource are proportional to the arable land area and its unit productivity.In the end of the paper,China's land population carrying capacity is taken as a case to be discussed based on the results of simulation of dynamics.The discussion shows that China is fully capable to support its people for better life.