多重不确定条件下发电与CCS技术的两阶段投资决策分析

在多重不确定性条件下,将燃煤发电投资和CCS技术投资统一在一个两阶段的投资决策模型框架下进行分析,结果表明:高昂的投资成本使得企业宁愿选择购买碳排放指标也不愿投资CCS技术,政府补贴对激励企业投资CCS技术存在直接和间接的效应。保持碳排放价格稳定也能激励企业投资。基于CCS投资期望首达时间导出了补贴规则。将CCS技术投资看作更新期权,与NPV决策方式比较,更新期权的存在抬高了企业价值,降低了发电投资的门槛值。

Coal-fired Power and CCS Investment Decision-making Issue Based on a Two Stage Investment Model under Multiple Uncertain Conditions

Under uncertain conditions,a two stage of the investment decision-making model is incorporated into coal-fired power and CCS technology investment.After analyzing the mode,the results turn out that: the high sunk cost and O&M cost of CCS make the investor get carbon credit/quota rather than invest CCS technology.Government subsidy has direct and indirect effects on encouraging the investor to adopt CCS technology.Maintaining carbon price stability can also motivate enterprises to make investment.Based on the best investment time of CCS the subsidy policy can be derived.This paper treats CCS technology investment as a retrofit option,which raises the coal-fired power value and lowers the investment threshold of power generation compared to the NPV decision method.