脆弱度变化模型在规划环境影响评价中的应用

界定了系统脆弱度的内涵，阐述了系统脆弱度变化特性及其驱动机制，并从脆弱度公式推演出系统脆弱度变化的量度模型．以浙江武义县为例进行了土地规划环境影响评价实践研究，结果表明：土地利用系统在规划框架内人类活动影响下的变化实质是其脆弱度的变化，在环境影响识别基础上构建反映系统变化的特征指标体系，并运用G’模式对指标参数进行运算，可以得到较准确的描述系统脆弱度及其变化方向、幅度和强度等的量度结果，为确保区域环境优化而调整土地规划方案提供科学依据．

Fragility Degree Change Model and Its Application to Environmental Impact Statement of Land Use Planning

This paper defines systematic fragility degree and expatiates on the changing characteristic and driving mechanism of systematic fragility degree.A measurement model of systematic fragility degree change is established on the basis of the formula of fragility degree.A practical assessment is conducted on the environment impact of the land use planning in Wuyi county,Zhejiang province.Results show that the change of land use system with the influence of man's activity in the frame of the land use planning is that of fragility degree in essence.Based on the system of the characteristic index established on the basis of identifying environmental impact and calculation of index parameter through "G-model",an exact conclusion of the direction,range and intensity of systematic fragility degree can be obtained to provide the scientific evidence for regulating the project of the land use planning to achieve environmental optimization.