我国房地产价格与GDP关系实证分析

近几年来,我国房地产价格的迅猛增长引起了各方的重视。然而,国内有关房地产价格影响因素的研究还仅停留在定性分析上,缺乏定量分析与实证研究。基于我国1987-2004年度时间序列数据,应用协整分析、误差修正模型技术以及Granger因果分析对我国房地产价格与GDP之间的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:我国的房地产价格与GDP之间存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系;无论长期还是短期,我国的GDP波动都是房地产价格波动的Granger原因,GDP的走势对于房地产价格的涨跌起着决定性的影响,GDP的波动有助于预测房地产价格的走势;短期内经济的过热容易引起房地产价格的过快增长。

Empirical Analysis of Relationship Between Real Estate Price and GDP in China

In recent years, the swift growth of China's real estate prices has drawn a wide attention. However, the studies on the factors influencing real estate prices in China are mainly qualitative in nature, with few quantitative and empirical analyses. In this paper, an empirical analysis of relationship between real estate prices and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is made based on China's time-series statistics from 1987 to 2004 and with methods of co-integration test, Error Correction Model (ECM), Granger causality test. Empirical evidences show that there exists a long-term and steady dynamic equilibrium relationship between China's real estate prices and GDP. From both long-term and short-term points of view, China's GDP is the Granger cause for the variations of real estate prices. The trend of GDP has a decisive effect on both the increase and decrease of real estate prices. Therefore, the data of the fluctuation of GDP can be very useful in predicting the trend of real estate prices. Overheated economy during a short period will lead to a rapid increase of real estate prices.