| Housing Pricesand General Economic Conditions： An Analysis of Chinese New Dwelling Market |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘洪玉,沈悦.Housing Pricesand General Economic Conditions： An Analysis of Chinese New Dwelling Market[J].清华大学学报,2005,10(3):334-343. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘洪玉 沈悦 |
| |
| 作者单位： | InstituteofRealEstateStudies,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing100084,China |
| |
| 基金项目： | Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 79930500) |
| |
| 摘 要： | This paper presents an investigation of the interaction between housing prices and general economic conditions in China for the period of 1986-2002, The empirical results indicate that housing prices in China are predictable by market fundamentals, which could explain most of the variations in housing prices. The results of Granger causality tests confirm that unemployment rate, total population, changes in construction costs, changes in the consumer price index (CPI) are all Granger causalities of housing prices, with feedback effects observed to affect the vacancy rate of new dwellings, changes in CPI, and changes in per capita disposable income of urban households, Studies with impulse response functions further illustrate these relationships in terms of the degree of the impact on housing prices from the determinants and the feedbacks, The findings indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between housing prices and market fundamentals in China and it is the identified fundamentals that drive housing prices up, rather than a bubble,
|
| 关 键 词： | 中国 房地产市场 房产价格 市场需求 |
| 收稿时间： | 15 February 2004 |
| 修稿时间： | 10 October 2004 |
Housing Prices and General Economic Conditions: An Analysis of Chinese New Dwelling Market |
| |
| Liu Hongyu, &#x;Ú&#x;,Shen Yue,
.Housing Prices and General Economic Conditions: An Analysis of Chinese New Dwelling Market[J].Tsinghua Science and Technology,2005,10(3):334-343. |
| |
| Authors: | Liu Hongyu &#x;Ú&#x; Shen Yue
|
| |
| Institution: | LIU Hongyu,SHEN Yue Institute of Real Estate Studies,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an investigation of the interaction between housing prices and general eco- nomic conditions in China for the period of 1986-2002. The empirical results indicate that housing prices in China are predictable by market fundamentals, which could explain most of the variations in housing prices. The results of Granger causality tests confirm that unemployment rate, total population, changes in con- struction costs, changes in the consumer price index (CPI) are all Granger causalities of housing prices, with feedback effects observed to affect the vacancy rate of new dwellings, changes in CPI, and changes in per capita disposable income of urban households. Studies with impulse response functions further illustrate these relationships in terms of the degree of the impact on housing prices from the determinants and the feedbacks. The findings indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between housing prices and market fundamentals in China and it is the identified fundamentals that drive housing prices up, rather than a bubble. |
| |
| Keywords: | housing prices economic fundamentals Granger causality China |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
