| 不确定证据下的后验概率集结 |
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| 引用本文： | 李玉玲 吴祈宗 王伟平 郑恒. 不确定证据下的后验概率集结[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2007, 7(21): 5553-5557 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李玉玲 吴祈宗 王伟平 郑恒 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京理工大学,管理与经济学院,北京,100081;河南大学,数据与知识工程研究所,开封,475001
2. 北京理工大学,管理与经济学院,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 任何变量的后验概率计算都假定证据变量E是确定的,无法处理不确定证据下的后验概率。针对这个问题,提出在贝叶斯网络及其扩展的Credal网络中应用证据出现的概率对后验概率进行折中处理,并用不确定的Credal集表达其结果,从一定程度上为决策人员提供有意义的决策依据。最后,结合GeNIe软件,应用实例说明了该方法的有效性和合理性。
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯网络 Credal网络 概率集结 Credal set |
| 文章编号： | 1671-1819（2007）21-5553-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-05-17 |
Aggregation of Posterior Probability under Uncertain Evidence |
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| LI Yu-ling,WU Qi-zong,WANG Wei-ping,ZHENG Heng. Aggregation of Posterior Probability under Uncertain Evidence[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2007, 7(21): 5553-5557 |
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| Authors: | LI Yu-ling WU Qi-zong WANG Wei-ping ZHENG Heng |
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| Affiliation: | 1School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology , Beijing 100081, P. R. China;2 Institute of Data and Knowledge Engineering,Henan University, Kaifeng 475001 ,P. R. China |
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| Abstract: | The computation of posterior probability considers the evidence E certain without dealing with uncertain evidence,in terms of this,the posterior probability is split the difference according to the probability of evidence appearing in Bayesian network and its extension network of Credal network,and is expressed by Credal set so as to provide the base of decision-making for decision-maker.Finally,integrated with the software GeNIe,it shows the validity of the approach by example. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian network Credal network probability aggregation Credal set |
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