| 马尔可夫链的离散人口预测模型及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡吉花’唐光平,姚君. 马尔可夫链的离散人口预测模型及其应用[J]. 黑龙江科技学院学报, 2014, 0(1): 108-114 |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡吉花’唐光平 姚君 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]黑龙江科技大学理学院,哈尔滨150022 [2]湖南大学信息科学与工程学院,长沙410082 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目（12521479） |
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| 摘 要： | 为准确预测我国未来人口发展趋势,以我国近10年来人口数据为依据,对中国人口老龄化进程加快的问题进行统计分析。利用绝对分布的马尔可夫链人口预测模型,预测了未来中国人口结构,建立了基于模糊权马尔可夫链人口预测模型,对人口出生率和死亡率以及人口总数进行了预测,同时检验了这些预测模型的可靠性。最后讨论了基于平稳分布的人口结构控制问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口结构 马尔可夫链 模糊权 人口预测 |
Markov chain-based discrete population prediction model and its application |
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| CAI Jihua,TANG Guangping,YAO Jun. Markov chain-based discrete population prediction model and its application[J]. Journal of Heilongjiang Institute of Science and Technology, 2014, 0(1): 108-114 |
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| Authors: | CAI Jihua TANG Guangping YAO Jun |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Sciences, Heilongjiang University of Science ＆ Technology, Harbin 150022, China; 2.School of Information Science ＆ Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China;) |
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| Abstract: | Aimed at accurately predicting future demographic trends in China,this paper draws on population data in recent 10 years in our country and presents a statistical analysis of the accelerating process of China＇ s aging population,and a prediction of the future structure of China＇ s population using the population prediction model based on the absolute distribution Markov chain.And coupled with these is the development of a population projection model based on Fuzzy weighted Markov chain,the birth and death rates,on which to predict the total population and test the reliability of these prediction models.The paper ends with the discussion of the demographic control problem based on stationary distribution. |
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| Keywords: | population structure Markov chain Fuzzy weights population forecast |
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