科技发展规律研究的五个问题商榷

对科技发展速度及其变化规律，国外很早就有所研究。我国近20多年来，对此作了大量工作，出了很多有价值的成果。笔者觉得在这些研究中还有些问题没有澄清，有些占主导地位的观点很值得商榷。现把它分为五个方面进行讨论。即指数规律与周期规律是否性质不同的两个规律；速度研究能否限于经验概括性研究；速度变化规律是因果规律还是非因果规律；什么样的人才与成果能列入科技统计指标之中；横向排序指标是应该重结果指标还是应该重效率指标。

Analysis to Five Error Research Regions about Scientific and Technological Development Laws

Foreigners have been researched about scientific and technological developmment speed and its modification laws long before.Since recently twenty years more,our researchers have done a lot of works about it,and acquired many valuable achievements.However,the authou considers that there are still several problems that haven't clarified in these researches,even can be considered it as error research regions.This article divides these problems into five error regions:Are these two different quantities'laws about Index laws and Perod Laws,Can speed research restrict in general experience research,Laws about modified speed is Cause-Effect Laws or Non cause-effect Laws,What kinds of talents and achievements can list in scientific and technological statistics index,Stress on result index or efficiency index in transverse array index.