降雨诱发泥石流危险性动态评价

为了建立更为客观且评价精度更高的泥石流危险性评价模型，深入分析泥石流危险性的影响因素，运用层次分析法构建了不同降雨工况下动态权重系统，结合模糊综合评价法实现了对苏峪口泥石流危险性动态评价。结果表明：随着降雨强度变化，指标权重呈现非线性动态变化特征，研究区泥石流危险性对各危险等级的隶属度不断变化，表现为随着降雨量增大，危险性逐级升高。分析认为所提出的泥石流危险性动态评价方法在考虑降雨指标取值变化对评价结果影响的基础上，兼顾了指标权重对降雨工况的响应，评价结果相对传统方法更为精准，也更符合客观实际。

Dynamic evaluation of the risk of rainfall induced debris flow

This paper deeply analyzes the factors affecting the risk of debris flow, and builds a dynamic evaluation index system, uses the analytic hierarchy process to establish a dynamic weight system under different rainfall conditions, and combines the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to realize the dynamic evaluation of the Suyukou debris flow risk. According to the research results: as the rainfall intensity changes, the index weights show nonlinear dynamic change characteristics, and the degree of membership of the debris flow hazard to each hazard level is constantly changing, showing a gradual increase. It is analyzed that the dynamic evaluation method for the risk of debris flow proposed in this paper takes into account the impact of the change in the value of the rainfall index on the evaluation result, and takes into account the response of the index weight to the rainfall conditions. The evaluation result is more accurate and more consistent than the traditional method Objective and practical.