硬化非高斯结构响应首次穿越的Monte Carlo模拟

在对比分析已有硬化非高斯模型(Winterstein硬化模型、Ding和Chen模型)的基础上,提出了一个基于Zhao和Lu模型的新硬化非高斯模型.新模型预测偏度和峰度的误差比既有硬化模型小,且最大误差分别为0.311和0.479,表明新模型具有良好的精度;同时新模型扩展了Zhao和Lu模型的适用范围.最后运用新硬化模型模拟硬化非高斯过程样本,发展了硬化非高斯结构响应首次穿越的Monte Carlo模拟方法.数值算例验证了本文方法用于硬化非高斯结构响应首次穿越失效概率计算有较高的精度;杭州新火车东站大跨屋盖以及南水北调工程渡槽结构工程实例说明了本文方法的使用过程.

Monte Carlo Simulation for First Passage of Hardening Structural Responses

A new hardening non-Gaussian model based on Zhao and Lu model was proposed, by comparative analysis of the Winterstein''s hardening model, and Ding and Chen model. Skewness error and kurtosis error of the new hardening non-Gaussian model are smaller than the existing hardening response models. The maximum Skewness error and kurtosis error is 0.311, 0.479, respectively. It is indicated that the proposed new hardening non-Gaussian model has good accuracy. At the same time, the proposed model extended the application range of the Zhao and Lu model. Finally, the new hardening non-Gaussian model was applied to simulate the hardening non-Gaussian processes, and Monte Carlo simulation method for the first passage probability of hardening structural responses was developed. Numerical example show that the proposed method has good precision for estimating the first passage probability of hardening structural responses. The long-span roof of Hanzhou New Train Station and the aqueduct of South to North Water Transfer Project were given for illustrating the use process of the proposed method.