| 基于指数平滑与曲线拟合的交通违法预测方法研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 冯金巧,胡家兴,孙占全,丁青艳,刘威,张立东. 基于指数平滑与曲线拟合的交通违法预测方法研究[J]. 山东科学, 2009, 22(5): 122-126 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 冯金巧 胡家兴 孙占全 丁青艳 刘威 张立东 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 山东省计算中心,山东济南,250014;山东省计算中心,山东济南,250014;大连海事大学经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116026 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 山东省科技攻关项目，山东省自然科学基金 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了更加准确地估计交通违法数据的变化趋势，针对交通违法预测需求分析，设计了一种基于指数平滑与曲线拟合方法结合的组合预测方法。算法公式简单、易实现，可移植性较强，具有普适性。利用实际数据对该方法进行了数据验证，并与对比算法进行了效果对比。验证结果表明，本文中提出的方法预测效果较好，具有一定实用性。
|
| 关 键 词： | 违法预测 组合预测 指数平滑 曲线拟合 |
An Exponential Smoothing and Curve Fitting Based Traffic Violation Prediction Approach |
| |
| Affiliation: | FENG Jin-qiao , HU Jia-xing SUN Zhan-quan , DING Qing-yan, LIU Wei ,ZHANG Li-dong ( 1. Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014, China ; 2. School of Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | We present a new traffic violation prediction approach to accurately analyze the trend of traffic violation data. It is based on exponential smothing and curve fitting models. It has simple expression and can easily be implemented, which are also the positives of traditional exponential smoothing model. It can be used for online forecasting. We compare the traditional exponential smoothing approach with traffic volume and analyze the approach and data. Results show that the approach is applicable to real conditions and has a better forecasting result. |
| |
| Keywords: | traffic violation prediction combined prediction exponential smoothing curve fitting |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
