| 我国工业经济运行态势及本轮景气波动特点分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孔宪丽.我国工业经济运行态势及本轮景气波动特点分析[J].科技促进发展,2011,7(9):62-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孔宪丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院经济计量分析与预测研究中心; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&010):“十二五”时期宏观经济运行动态监测分析研究,首席专家:高铁梅; 国家社科基金青年项目(10CJY032):我国工业行业经济波动特征及波动机制的结构性研究,负责人:孔宪丽; 中国博士后科学基金项目(20090451270):全球化背景下中国工业增长波动特征及机制的计量分析,负责人:孔宪丽 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对我国工业经济运行态势和本轮景气波动特点的分析,得出以下结论:我国工业一致合成指数的走势表明我国工业经济于2011年初呈现的景气回落局面持续至今年6月,从7月开始经济景气开始呈现小幅回升态势,并且根据先行合成指数的走势和平均超前期计算,我国工业经济景气小幅震荡上行的态势在短期内仍将继续。进一步观察我国工业领域主要经济指标的变动特征可以发现我国工业经济本轮景气波动具有如下特点:(1)2011年以来我国工业生产增速呈现持续低位运行态势;(2)产品价格震荡上行,工业企业经济效益却持续下滑;(3)产量增速趋缓,产销率逐步回升,工业企业"去库存化"现象显现。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国工业 运行态势 波动特点 |
Analysis of Operation Situation and Current Fluctuation Features of Chinese Industry |
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| KONG Xian-li.Analysis of Operation Situation and Current Fluctuation Features of Chinese Industry[J].Science & Technology for Development,2011,7(9):62-67. |
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| Authors: | KONG Xian-li |
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| Institution: | Kong Xian-li School of Mathematics and Quantitative Economics,Center for Econometric Analysis and Forecasting,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the trend of coincident indicators of Chinese industry, it was found that the decline of Chinese industrial economy in early 2011 continued until June 2011, and Chinese industry presented a slight upward trend from 2011 July. According to trend and average leading periods of the leading indicator of Chinese industry, it is found that the slight shocks upward trend of Chinese industry in the short term will still continue. Further, based on the change characteristics of Chinese industrial major indi... |
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| Keywords: | Chinese industry Operation situation Fluctuation features |
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