一种新的洪水随机模拟模型的应用

将俄罗斯水文学者Khristoforov等建立的一种能反映洪水涨快落慢特性的随机模拟模型应用于钱塘江流域衢江衢县站汛期洪水流量过程模拟,并提出了模型参数的提取方法,同时对参数的分布线型进行了统计检验,对模拟结果分别进行了长、短序列不同时段洪峰洪量统计特性的实用性检验.结果表明:该模型能够通过实用性检验;模拟出的汛期洪水流量过程线能较好地反映实际洪水变化特性;与传统且常用的相关解集模型及季节性AR(1)模型相比,该模型所用参数大为减少,而且模拟效果也优于以上2种模型.

Application of a new flood stochastic simulation model

The new flood stochastic simulation model developed recently by Russian hydrologist Khristoforov which could reflect the characteristics of rise fast and fall slow of flood was applied to simulating the flood discharge process at the Quxian hydrological station on Qujiang River in Qiantang River Basin during flood season.A method for determining the model parameters was proposed,and the linetype of parameter distribution was tested statistically.Then the validity of statistical features of short-series and long-series flood peak and flood discharge was tested for different stages based on measured data.It is shown that the new model passes through the above test,and the flood hydrograph simulated by the model for flood season can effectively reflect the real variation of flood.Compared with the conventional relative disaggregation model and seasonal AR(1) model,the new model is of good effect in flood simulation,and the number of the parameters in the model is greatly reduced.