美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)资料在热红外短临地震预报中的应用初探

首次引用美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)全球再分析资料进行地震短临预测的应用性研究。与气象卫星红外资料相比，NCEP资料具有时空连续、标准统一，排除了云层阻挡等优势。通过对近期伊朗地震的震例分析表明：NCEP资料可以较清晰地反映地震短临期间地面增温异常的时空动态演变与地震构造活动的对应关系，并揭示了该地震的成因是由于阿拉伯板块向北运动，导致伊朗板块周边断裂活动，牵动NNE向巴姆断裂右旋剪切活动。该震例验证性地分析表明：利用NCEP资料作地震短临预测是有可能的。

Application of the NCEP Data in Prediction of Short-term and Impending Earthquake using Thermal Infrared

The American NCEP data on the practice research of impending earthquake forecast is first used. Compared with the infrared data of weather satellite, there are several advantages in NCEP data, for example time-spatial is successive, criteria are same and the cloudy blocking is eliminated. Through analyzing the case of Iraffs earthquake, it is showing that the data of NCEP reflect the relation between the abnormal temperature increasing and the movement of seismic tectonic, and illuminate the cause of the earthquake. The cause is that Arabia tectonic moving northward leads up to the crack around Iran tectonic moving and affects north-north-east crack of BAM dextral cut moving. The case of the earthquake is proved that it is possible to use the NCEP data predict the earthquake.