50年来东北地区增温趋势及原因探讨

20世纪50年代以来,我国重工业基地——东北地区气温明显出现增长趋势。为了研究东北地区气温增长原因,首先运用梯森多边形(Thiessen Polygon Program)方法将东北地区划分为相应的29个区域,以每个采样点年均气温值代表相应区域的气温值;然后分析了这29个区域50年来的气温增长规律,并且通过最小二乘法计算出其气温的线性增长速率值;最后根据此29个采样点气温增长速率值,利用MapInfo软件制作了东北各地气温变化斜率专题图。通过观察专题图可以发现,东北地区各地气温增长速度明显存在差异。结合当地实际发展情况分析后认为,区域内人类活动越剧烈、排放的温室气体越多、当地工业化的程度越高,则增温越快,但明显受海洋气候影响的地区增温则相对较慢。

On the Warming Trend in Northeast China During the Past 50 Years and an Analysis on Its Causes

The air temperature in Northeast China Region,the base of China's heavy industry,has raised significantly since the 50's of the 20th century. For an analysis on the causes,Northeast China Region is divided into 29 districts by Thiessen Polygon Program. At the same time,the mean annual temperature in each sampling position is taken to represent the temperature of each district. Then the variation of the mean annual temperature of each sampling position is analyzed from 1951 to 1998 and the increasing rate of air temperature in the 29 districts is obtained through least squares method. Finally,a special subject diagram is created,which reflects different prospective increasing rate of mean annual temperature in the 29 districts. It is shown that the increasing rate of air temperature in some districts is significantly different from those of the others,and that the more human activities there are,more greenhouse gas that mankind has released and more industrialized the region is,the more significantly the temperature of the region is raised. However,the increasing rate of the regional air temperature is much redused near the ocean.