深圳卫生填埋淤堵排放的灰色预测模型

灰色预测中的核心GM（1，1）模型将无规律的原始数据生成为有规律的数据序列后进行预测，本文对GM（1，1）模型加以改进，将灰色预测GM（1，1）模型与跳变灰过程理论结合，建立了淤堵试验渗透系数的跳变预测模型。跳变预测模型具有灰色系统只需少量数据即可建模的优点，又有跳变灰过程可处理异常值的特点。采用某填埋场淤堵试验资料，经验证表明，该方法精度较高，将灰色模型引入填埋场衬垫系统渗透系数预测切实可行。

Grey Predicting Model for Deposition and Drainage of Landfills in Shenzhen City

The GM(1,1) model, which is the core of grey prediction, can discriminate out of order data sequences and change them into orderly sequences by AGO. Based on improvement of the grey model and combination with the jumping grey theory, a high precision jumping grey model is developed for prediction of the permeability coefficient. The jumping grey model is suitable for the condition of only a few data, and also suitable for treatment of oscillatory data. With the data from laboratory tests of landfills, the method is proved to be reasonable and feasible.