基于时间序列模型的职工平均工资预测

以时间序列模型为基础,对未来中国经济发展和工资增长的形势进行分析,经过合理的假设和筛选,确立工资的6个影响因素,继而引入国家效应、企业效应和个人效应3个影响因子。运用SPSS的相关性分析,对影响山东省职工年平均工资的因素进行分析,分别研究了国家效应、企业效应和个人效应与该地区年平均工资的关系,进一步运用SPSS,综合分析这3个因素对该地区平均工资的影响。最后,通过综合国家效应、企业效应和个人效应这3个因素建立的时间序列自回归模型,得到2011—2035年山东省职工年平均工资的预测值。通过时间序列的自回归模型预测值与实际值的Sequence Plot曲线,证实模拟效果较好,预测值符合模拟趋势。

Year average wage forecast based on time series model

In view of China＇s future economic development and wage growth,this article establishes six factors that influence the salary through reasonable assumptions and screening base on the time series model,then introduces country effect,enterprise effect and individual effect as three influencing factors.Uses SPSS correlation analysis function to analyze the factors that affect year average wage of Shandong province.Respectively it discusses the relationship between country effect,enterprise effect,individual effect and the average annual wage in the area.Finally it uses a combination of the three impact factors to build a time series auto-regression model and forecast the average annual wage in the area from 2011 to 2035.Then the forecasting result is proved excellent through the simulation analysis.