基于延迟Petri网的信息系统开发风险评估方法

信息系统建设是企业信息化建设的一个重要组成部分 ,在开发过程中出现的各种不确定因素导致企业信息系统中建设中存在着多种风险 ,对这些风险的管理和控制是信息系统开发管理的一个重要步骤。提出信息系统开发的风险管理和决策模型以及风险管理计划的制定策略 ,然后引入延迟时间模糊Petri网的概念并将其用于建立信息系统开发风险管理计划执行效果评估模型 ,重点论述应用延迟时间模糊Petri网对企业信息系统开发的各种风险进行评估的算法以及该算法的时间复杂度分析。

Risk Evaluation Method for Information System Development Based on Time Delay Fuzzy Petri Nets

Information system development(ISD) is an important part of enterprises informatization in China. Risks resulted from various uncertain factors during the development have been encountered. It has been a common problem in the last 10 years in China that the performance of an information system may deteriorate with the increase of its construction and maintenance costs. In this paper, an effective risk management and decision-making method using time delay Petri nets and fuzzy sets is described. First, a risk management and decision-making model and the strategies for risk management plans are presented. The concept of time delay fuzzy Petri nets (TDFPN) is then introduced and the evaluation model based on TDFPN is established after the risk management plans are implemented. Finally an algorithm is developed based on the model to calculate the risk degree, and the time complexity of the algorithm is also analyzed.