葫芦岛市城市火灾分布的特点及其对城市火险分析的启示

火灾是城市、城镇的主要危害之一,城市火灾动力学关系到人们的生命和财产安全。研究了城市火灾的分布情况以及火灾频率与气象参数的关系,发现城市火灾的频率-尺度分布以及频率-时间间隔分布满足幂律关系。这表明大火灾和小火灾之间存在相互关联,由小火灾的发生频率可以预测大火灾的发生频率。研究火灾频率和气象参数(如温度,湿度)之间的关系,结果表明火灾频率随着某些气象参数变化而变化,并且呈现一定的规律性,说明通过气象参数预测城市火灾发生频率是可行的。所做工作可望揭示城市火灾的一些复杂特征,对城市火灾风险分析也有一定的帮助。

Characteristics of Fire Distribution in Huludao City and Its Enlightenment to City Fire Danger Analysis

Fire is one of the main disasters in cities and towns. Study on the dynamics of city fires concerns the safety of human lives and properties. In this paper, the distribution of city fires is investigated, as well as the relation between fire frequency and weather. The frequency-size distribution and frequency-interval distribution of city fires are found to satisfy power-law relation, suggesting that there is connection between large and small fires and large fire frequency can be predicted with that of small fire. The correlation between fire frequency and weather parameters such as temperature and humidity is also studied. It is shown that fire frequency changes with these weather parameters, indicating that city fire frequency can be forecasted with weather parameters. The results are expected to reveal the global, complex characteristics of city fires, that is, the dynamics of city fire system. The study is also an approach to compose city fire danger rating method, just like the existent forest fire danger rating method.