Numerical simulations of nutrient transport changes in Honghu Lake Basin,Jianghan Plain

Nutrients transported from catchments are one of the most important sources for lake eutrophication. In this study, the Honghu Lake Basin, located at the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, was chosen as the study area, and the watershed hydrological distribution model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) was applied to evaluate the trajectory of watershed nutrient transportation over time. Based on the analysis of driving factors, three experiments corresponding to natural, traditional and modern agriculture processes respectively were designed to evaluate the changes of nutrient inputs from catchments under the three environments. The simulation results showed that there were variations in nutrient production and changes in the range and rate. For three periods of the experiments, TN concentrations have changed as 0.12→0.31→1.15 mg/L, and production as 420→1650→6522 T/a; while TP concentrations changed as 0.018→0.057→0.117 mg/L, and production as 78→303→665 T/a. The nutrient transportation experienced slowly long-term increases during 1840–1950, then showed a relatively rapid increase during the period of 1950–1980s and the period from 1980 to early 1990s, with increasing rate of 1.4% and 2.4% respectively. And from the later 1990s to now, an obviously increasing trend with 15% increasing rate occurred. The effect from human activities on the watershed nutrient transportation increased rapidly, and had become a dominant factor in changes of the nutrient transportation. Supported by the Major Special Program of National Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2008ZX02002-001)